While have no time for notions of 'Jewish conspiracy' it is still amazing, and real, the power the Israeli issue holds over US politics, as evidenced by the political participation at the recent Aipac meeting:
"More than half the members of the US Congress were in attendance, a reflection of Aipac's influence on Capitol Hill where it has been a driving force in pressing for stronger sanctions legislation against Iran and upping the rhetoric"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/06/netanyahu-iran-nuclear-weapons-israel
I personally think rather than any manipulation of the US by some shadowy 'lobby', or even that the 'Jewish' vote is a large and coherent enough bloc to be worth pandering to to such an extent, the real reason that the Israeli issue has such a tenacious hold on US opinion and politics is somehow because its story, and what it is spun to represent, captivates the American mood and spirit. Apart from wilder fundamentalist theologies involving Armegeddon (but given that 80% believe in a 2nd coming, 20% within their lifetime then maybe this isn't as fringe a belief as it sounds ) there is something perhaps quasi-religous to it, or at the very least some emotional, non-rational, narrative that binds the US to Israel no matter what the realities on the ground.
Whatever the reasons, it is still exceedingly scary that the US could be railroaded into a serious conflict by the beligerent and unilateral actions of a state to which it provides so much support. If Israel attacks Iran then the US will be seen by most in the region as at the very least approving and at worst complicit, and would inevitably be a dangerous and difficult development for the US itself to deal with. A closing of the straights of Hormuz, inflamed attacks on US interests in the region and beyond, an oil crisis wtih econmoic shockwaves, all these are real effects which will cost the US dear if it's 'friend and ally' ignores its please for calm and launches a preemptive strike. And of course the important point is that it's not that the US is trying to sacrifice Isreal for its own good, rather it is trying to prevent Israel from doing something which is worse for it itself.
No conspiracy, but crazy nonetheless...
Showing posts with label iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iran. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Iran: false nuclear fears cloud the west's judgment
I personally think that while a dangrous development, a nuclear armed
Iran is not the nightmare scenario it is often claimed to be,and
rational analysis of the real dangers and likelihoods is needed, both in
public and political discourse. So agree to a large extent with this
article
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/16/iran-false-nuclear-fears
After all, the cold war subsided without armageddon, and that was a much worse situation. One valid point however is that the mechanisms that were developed between the US and USSR to prevent 'accidents' (misunderstandings which could lead to reaction and counter-reaction) aren't in place between places like Iran and Israel , and if Iran did have nuclear weapons then the lack of such a diplomatic safety apparatus would make it a very very dangerous situation. As the documentary 1983, Brink of Apocolypse showed, even with these mechanisms, the world could and did come frighteningly close to accidental annihilation during the cold war.
update : this following article also lists several reasons why a nuclear Iran might be containable :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/21/nuclear-alarmism-iran
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/16/iran-false-nuclear-fears
After all, the cold war subsided without armageddon, and that was a much worse situation. One valid point however is that the mechanisms that were developed between the US and USSR to prevent 'accidents' (misunderstandings which could lead to reaction and counter-reaction) aren't in place between places like Iran and Israel , and if Iran did have nuclear weapons then the lack of such a diplomatic safety apparatus would make it a very very dangerous situation. As the documentary 1983, Brink of Apocolypse showed, even with these mechanisms, the world could and did come frighteningly close to accidental annihilation during the cold war.
update : this following article also lists several reasons why a nuclear Iran might be containable :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/21/nuclear-alarmism-iran
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